HWW Wheat Tour Day 1 Results  05/14 23:09

   Variable Wheat Still Averages 49.9 BPA on HWW Wheat Tour Day 1

   Day 1 of the Wheat Quality Council's Hard Winter Wheat Tour concluded 
Tuesday, May 14, with a total weighted average yield estimate of 49.9 bushels 
per acre (bpa). 

Jason Jenkins
DTN Crops Editor

   COLBY, Kan. (DTN) -- Day 1 of the Wheat Quality Council's Hard Winter Wheat 
Tour concluded Tuesday, May 14, with a total weighted average yield estimate of 
49.9 bushels per acre (bpa). It was the second-highest Day 1 yield average in 
the past decade for the tour, being bested only by 2021 when the route averaged 
59.2 bpa.

   Nearly 75 tour participants in 18 vehicles left Manhattan, Kansas, spreading 
out across northwest and north-central portions of the state to assess the hard 
winter wheat crop -- estimating potential yield and noting pest and disease 
pressure. Some sampling also occurred in select counties in southern Nebraska.

   At the end of the day in Colby, as the scouting reports from each vehicle 
were shared, it was evident that while crop conditions were vastly improved 
from 2023, there was great variability both geographically and even within 
individual fields. Many haves and have-nots could be determined simply by 
looking at a map of precipitation totals this spring.

   "Last year, we only harvested about 200 of the 1,400 acres that we had 
planted, and those did about 20 bushels an acre. The insurance adjusters put 
the rest at 2 to 4 bushels," said Dean Stoskopf who farms in central Kansas 
around Hoisington. "So far this year, we've still got all our wheat. Some is 
decent. Some is so-so. We shoot for that 50-bushel yield range, but I don't 
think I'm anywhere close to that this year."

   In the 206 winter wheat fields observed by tour scouts on May 14, estimated 
yields ranged from a low of 10 bpa to a high of 112 bpa. Freeze damage was 
noted in many fields, most likely the result of overnight temperatures on March 
26-27 that fell well below 32 degrees Fahrenheit for an extended period of 
time. Reports of stripe rust were also common, a potential consequence of 
growers trying to determine if fungicide applications make economic sense in 
fields with lower yield potential.

   Jeanne Falk Jones, a multi-county agronomy specialist with Kansas State 
University Extension, said that much of the unevenness in the wheat stands 
observed in the fields was the result of stand establishment last fall.

   "While we had profile moisture down low in the soil profile, the top 3 or 4 
inches were very dry," she said. "And what that resulted in is really a 
challenge to get good stand establishment clear across the field."

   She explained that without moisture, fall tiller development that helps 
drive yield doesn't occur. So, the crop then must rely on tillers developing in 
the spring.

   "The challenge with that is you actually have to have moisture in the spring 
to get those spring tillers up and get them going," she said. "I actually 
looked at the Kansas Mesonet station based on the Colby Experiment Station. 
From March 1 until April 25, we had 0.35 inches of rain. That's nothing that's 
really going to make much difference in our wheat crop, and that's what you're 
seeing in the field this week."

   The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress and 
Condition Report released May 13 estimated that 28% of the Kansas winter wheat 
crop was in good condition, down 1% from the previous week. NASS rated the 
remainder of the crop as 13% very poor, 22% poor, 34% fair and 3% excellent.

   On Wednesday, May 15, Day 2 of the hard winter wheat tour moves into 
southwest and south-central Kansas, with one route extending into select 
counties in Oklahoma. The day ends in Wichita.

   DTN Crops Editor Jason Jenkins is participating on this year's tour. Look 
for more daily updates and final yield estimates on http://www.dtnpf.com and on 
social platform X.

   Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

   Follow him on social platform X @JasonJenkinsDTN




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